Project name: Analysis of Weather Used for Fire Behavior Prediction
Abstract: Predicting potential fire behavior has become standard for developing fire management plans for land management agencies and is used regularly during fires to determine where control actions are necessary, the efficacy of control actions, and to ensure safety to firefighters. Predictions are developed using various models such as BEHAVE, FLAMMAP, FARSITE, and RERAP. These models are used to model a point in time and place, fire movement across a landscape for several days, or probabilities of fire movement based on historic situations. Regardless of the modeling objectives and tools, weather analysis is instrumental to all fire behavior predictions.
The installation of a network of Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS), a central data depository (KCFAST, WIMS), and the development of the Fire Family Plus weather analysis tool, has facilitated the easy acquisition and synthesis of historic weather information throughout the country. However, there is no standard for developing or reporting the weather conditions to use for fire behavior modeling at the various temporal and spatial scales. Assessments may use weather that occurred during a particular fire that exhibited a certain fire behavior. Some assessments include weather at the xth percentile; frequently the 90th and 97th percentile. Rarely is it documented why a particular weather scenario was chosen or how it was developed. The objectives of this study are:
- Compile the methods used to determined weather used in fire behavior analysis.
- Compare the fuel moistures and wind speeds derived using these methods to determine if there is ‘significant difference’.
- Compare fire behavior characteristics modeled with the fuel moistures and wind speeds to determine if there is ‘significant difference’.
- Propose and demonstrate methods to determine weather attributes based on modeling objectives.
Project funding source: FMI
Expected Delivery: 12/31/08
